Market Review April 15, 2024

The economic data released on April 15, 2024, included key indicators related to retail activity and manufacturing health in the United States. The results varied, showing significant improvements in retail sales but a decline in manufacturing performance in New York. The data provided can influence market sentiment and monetary policy decisions, affecting various asset classes including USD, gold, and equity futures.

Today's Event Overview

• Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Mar): Retail sales excluding automobiles increased significantly to 1.10%, exceeding the forecast of 0.50%. This suggests strong consumer confidence and spending patterns.
• NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Apr): The index came in at -14.3, showing continued contraction though an improvement from the previous -20.9. The reading was worse than the forecasted -5.2, indicating ongoing challenges in the manufacturing sector.
• Retail Control (MoM) (Mar): This measure, which excludes more volatile elements like food and fuel, also increased to 1.10% from a forecast of 0.40%, demonstrating robust core retail activity.
• Retail Sales (MoM) (Mar): Overall retail sales rose by 0.70%, above the forecasted 0.40%, but slightly lower than the previous month’s 0.90%.
• Business Inventories (MoM) (Feb): Increased by 0.40%, suggesting that businesses are stocking up in anticipation of continued consumer demand.
• Retail Inventories Ex Auto (Feb): Also showed a slight increase, in line with expectations, indicating a balanced approach to stock management.
• Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q1): The GDP estimate was revised upward to 2.80% from the previous 2.40%, reflecting a more optimistic outlook on economic growth.

Impact Analysis

• Impact on USD:
• Positive results from retail sales suggest strong economic activity, which is generally bullish for the USD. The increase in GDP projections further supports this outlook.
• The manufacturing index, while improved, still indicates contraction which could temper enthusiasm for the USD in the short term.

• Impact on Gold:
• The strength in retail sales and upward revision of GDP forecasts typically reduce the appeal of gold as a safe haven. However, ongoing issues in manufacturing could maintain some defensive allure for gold.
• Overall, the mixed economic signals might result in subdued movements for gold as investors weigh growth against underlying economic issues.

• Impact on Equity Futures:
• Strong retail sales data and higher GDP forecasts are bullish signals for equity markets, suggesting robust consumer spending and economic health.
• Mixed results from the manufacturing sector may cause some concern for industries directly affected by manufacturing outputs but are unlikely to overshadow the positive signals from the broader economic data.

Today's data presents a mostly positive outlook, dominated by strong consumer spending which is a vital component of economic health. However, the persistent issues in manufacturing need monitoring as they could signal underlying economic vulnerabilities.