Market Review: December 13, 2024

Economic data from December 13 reflects steady trade dynamics, with stable export prices and a mild increase in import prices signaling balanced market conditions. Speculative activity highlighted diverging trends, with increased confidence in equities and rising interest in gold. The Baker Hughes rig counts remained unchanged, reflecting stability in U.S. energy production.

Key Highlights:

Trade Prices (Export and Import Price Index):

• Export prices were unchanged at 0.00%, above the forecasted decline of -0.20%, signaling stabilization.
• Import prices rose by 0.10%, slightly above forecasts, indicating mild upward pressure on input costs.

Speculative Positioning:

• Gold speculative positions rose to 275.6K, signaling increased investor interest in safe-haven assets.
• Nasdaq 100 speculative positions climbed to 35.6K, reflecting strong confidence in tech equities.
• S&P 500 speculative net positions improved to -83.3K, highlighting reduced bearish sentiment.

Energy Markets:

• The Baker Hughes Oil and Total Rig Counts remained stable at 482 and 589, respectively, signaling consistent energy production.



Impact Analysis:

• USD Impact:
  Stable trade prices and improved speculative positioning in equities support USD strength, while rising gold speculative positions weigh on sentiment slightly. The overall USD impact is neutral to slightly bullish.

• Gold Impact:
  Gold benefits from increased speculative demand, reflecting heightened safe-haven interest. However, stable trade prices and subdued inflation pressures temper the outlook. The overall gold outlook is bullish.

• Equities Futures Impact:
  Equities futures are likely to react positively to reduced bearish sentiment in S&P 500 positioning and increased Nasdaq 100 confidence. Stable trade prices and energy production add to market stability. The overall equities outlook is bullish.

The data highlights an overall stable economic environment, with trade prices holding steady and speculative confidence growing in equities. The rising interest in gold underscores cautious optimism, while stable energy production ensures consistent supply conditions. Markets are well-positioned heading into the next week, with a balanced outlook across major asset classes.